Industrial Policy – A Tale of Ideology, Political Economy, and Dutch Disease
November 2024 2024-12-11 15:47Authors
Click to view/download
Industrial Policy – A Tale of Ideology, Political Economy, and Dutch Disease
Abstract
This chapter examines over half a century of economic and industrial policy in Egypt through an assessment of the extent to which it has achieved the structural transformation which comes with growth. Has economic development in Egypt been marked by successful industrialization shifting over time to high-productivity sectors? Egypt took its first steps of industrialization toward the end of the 1800s. But manufacturing development was slight until the late 1940s. Industrial development took off since 1952, since when Egyptian industrial policy has shifted from inward-looking import substitution industrialization from the late fifties followed by gradual liberalization since the early seventies. More specifically Egypt’s industrial policy over the past sixty years can be divided into three main periods: import substitution of the 50s-60s, the twenty year “Open Door Policy” from the early 70s, and finally the Economic Reform Period 1991-2010. Import substitution created a planned economy in the 1960s, accompanied by a massive wave of nationalization which included the industrial and financial trade structures of the economy. Import bans and prohibitive tariffs were at the heart of the excessive protectionism that plagued this period. Industrial policies were primarily price-based neglecting competitiveness in favor of other social policy goals. The “Open Door Era” reversed the nationalist-socialist development policy, integrating Egypt into the global capitalist market though a partial liberalization. Liberalization supported a surge in consumption which dominated the 70s and 80s. The resulting pressures on foreign exchange resources, the sharp drop in per capita GDP and the severe budgetary, trade deficits and accumulated debt forced the government in 1991 to initiate the Economic Research and Structural Adjustment Program to achieve macroeconomic stability and a stronger market orientation. Further reforms were implemented in 2003 to promote deeper market and outward orientation. Nevertheless, these reforms were accompanied by a captured industrial policy paving the way to the rise of crony capitalism which let to what El-Haddad (2020) calls the unsocial “social contract”. The post-revolutionary decade 2011-2020 has reinforced the unsocial “social contract” but brought about a restructuring of the cronies. During this decade, industrial policy seems to be entirely absent. The chapter brings the history of the controversial threesome of industrial policy, Dutch disease and political economy into the forefront of the discussion. I argue that Dutch Disease is a problem, with the resource sector undermining the potential for a competitive manufacturing sector. Political economy considerations have meant that industrial policy has generally exacerbated this situation and has been captured by crony capitalists.