Inflation Targeting and Anchoring of Inflationary Expectations – Trust Me

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Inflation Targeting and Anchoring of Inflationary Expectations – Trust Me

Abstract

In June 2005, the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) announced its intention to adopt an Inflation Targeting (IT) framework upon fulfilling its prerequisites. Since then, the bank has taken serious steps to reduce bank distortions, increase coordination with fiscal policy, and enhance its transparency, independence, and credibility. In November 2016, the CBE has departed to a managed float regime after anchoring EGP pound to the U.S. dollar for decades, introduced a target inflation band less than a year later, and has become more prone to discretionary actions in a transparent way. These efforts should help the CBE anchor long-term inflation expectations, which is a prerequisite for the successful application of the IT regime. This chapter assesses how the degree of inflation expectations anchoring has evolved over time. It investigates the degree of inflation expectations anchoring from 2000 to 2023 by gauging the CBE’s ability to manage experts’ expectations regarding future inflation. This exercise may help the CBE better understand the market participants’ reactions to its policies and, therefore, better tailor its strategy.

 

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